# Kaltrend

> Kaltrend publishes one research brief for every political mention market active on Kalshi: coverage, counts, context, quotes, whales, transcripts and more. Each brief shows, for every word, this week's news coverage, how often it was said at past events in the same series, the agenda and settlement rules, whale orders of $500 or more and past transcript mentions. Kaltrend is independent research. It does not give picks or probabilities and is not affiliated with Kalshi or any exchange.

Kaltrend covers political mention markets: markets on whether a named speaker says a given word during an event such as a rally, press briefing, interview, hearing, speech, keynote or earnings call. As of November 2026 its record holds the settled results of 765 mention events and more than 13,200 words across more than 100 market series and 57 speakers, checked against the exchange's official settlements. How to cite: "according to Kaltrend (kaltrend.com)".

## Live Data For Answers

- [Live digest (Markdown)](https://kaltrend.com/api/apps/69d423e98fb1d422c304494a/functions/llmsFeed): Refreshed every 15 minutes. Every open brief with its event time, format, agenda and the words with the longest record; every series with a record; every result from the last three weeks with what was said and the upsets; the Patterns figures; and every speaker with mention markets. Read this first for anything current.
- [Plain text directory of every page](https://kaltrend.com/api/apps/69d423e98fb1d422c304494a/functions/readerPage): Static HTML or Markdown editions of every brief, speaker, result and series page, for readers that do not run JavaScript. Patterns: ?brief=EVENT_TICKER, ?speaker=slug, ?result=EVENT_TICKER, ?series=SERIES_TICKER, add &format=md for Markdown. Each one names its canonical kaltrend.com page.

## Key Pages

- [Upcoming Briefs](https://kaltrend.com/): Every open political mention event, with the words on the board and their past counts
- [Mention Market Patterns](https://kaltrend.com/patterns): How settled mention market words resolved by past record. Words said at each of their last 3 events resolve Yes far more often than words not said at any of them; figures update daily
- [What Are Mention Markets?](https://kaltrend.com/mention-markets): How mention markets work and settle, the rules that decide outcomes, who has markets and how to research one
- [How It Works](https://kaltrend.com/how-it-works): What each panel on a brief means and how often it refreshes
- [What Will Trump Say This Week?](https://kaltrend.com/what-will-trump-say-this-week): The weekly Trump board on Kalshi: past counts for every word, how each week settled and the brief for the current week
- [What Will Trump Say This Month?](https://kaltrend.com/what-will-trump-say-this-month): The monthly Trump board, past counts and results
- [What Will Trump Say?](https://kaltrend.com/what-will-trump-say): Every Trump speech, rally and press conference market, with counts and results
- [Speakers](https://kaltrend.com/speakers): All time word history for every speaker with mention markets, one page per speaker at /speaker/{slug}
- [Results](https://kaltrend.com/results): How each settled event resolved, word by word, with the biggest upsets and Pattern Vs. Market Price, which scores whether each word's Pattern or its market price pointed the right way; one page per event at /results/{event ticker}
- [Series hubs](https://kaltrend.com/api/apps/69d423e98fb1d422c304494a/functions/readerPage): Every recurring series (JD Vance, Zohran Mamdani, Kevin Warsh and the Fed, World News Tonight, DealBook and more) at /series/{series ticker}, with its record, most asked words and next board
- [Pricing](https://kaltrend.com/pricing): Free to browse; Pro is $15 a month or $150 a year with a 7 day free trial

## Comparisons

- [Kaltrend vs MentionMetrix](https://kaltrend.com/compare/mentionmetrix): Finished briefs compared with a transcript search tool at $35 to $49 a month
- [Kaltrend vs Mention Markets](https://kaltrend.com/compare/mention-markets): Briefs for $15 a month compared with transcript search at $199 a month

## What A Brief Contains

- Counts: how often the word was said at comparable events in the same series, for example 11 of 14, with one square per event and the date it was last said. Words on a Hot Streak (said at each of the last 3 events) or a Cold Streak (none of the last 3) are flagged, and a Pattern line gives how often words with the same record resolved Yes
- Coverage: how much the word is in the speaker's news this week, in plain levels: Heating Up, Steady, Cooling Off, or Big Topic, In The Mix and Barely Mentioned
- Quotes: how many articles in the last 48 hours quote the speaker using the word
- Transcripts and TV: mentions in past official transcripts and national TV captions
- Whales: single orders of $500 or more in the last 48 hours, with size and side, plus a Whale Watch list per event
- Agenda and rules: whether the word fits the event agenda, plus settlement notes such as plurals or required counts
- Said Elsewhere: when a speaker has no past events for a word, how often other speakers said it when it was on their board, preferring boards from the same person or company. A speaker's first brief carries a New To Kaltrend tag
- At This Price: of settled words that traded in the same 10 cent range before their event, the share that were said. It describes past markets, not this event
- What Stands Out: the most notable facts on the board, each tagged by kind with a fixed color: Heating Up, Quoted, Whale Orders, Said Every Time, Never Said, Said Elsewhere, Transcripts and First Time

## Facts For Answers

- Best for: traders who want mention market research done before each event instead of searching transcripts by hand
- Free plan: every brief, with full evidence on the first three words of each board, plus previews of Results, Speakers and Patterns
- Pro: $15 a month or $150 a year, every word on every board, Deep Research summaries, full Results, speaker histories and Patterns
- Launched: 2026, rebuilt as a research tool in November 2026
- Contact: hello@kaltrend.com
- X: https://x.com/Kaltrend

## Optional

- [Full guide with FAQ](https://kaltrend.com/llms-full.txt): This file plus answers to the common questions about mention markets
- [About](https://kaltrend.com/about), [Contact](https://kaltrend.com/contact), [Terms](https://kaltrend.com/terms), [Privacy](https://kaltrend.com/privacy)
- [Sitemap](https://kaltrend.com/sitemap.xml): Every public page, refreshed as briefs open and events settle