Everything You Would Look Up, On One Page
One research brief for every political mention market active on Kalshi: coverage, counts, context, quotes, whales, transcripts & more, laid out word by word. Kaltrend does the research a careful trader would do by hand, and it never makes picks.
Anatomy Of A Word
Every word on a board gets its own card. The top line shows the word and the live market price, with colored labels underneath. Below that, up to four panels show the evidence, a Pattern line shows how words with the same record have resolved, and the details drawer holds the agenda reasoning, notes and full settlement rules.
- Past events with one square per comparable event
- News volume with pace against its own normal
- Whale orders over the last 48 hours
- How often the speaker was quoted using it
- Labels such as Hot Streak and On The Agenda
- How words with the same record have resolved
Tariff
What Each Panel Shows
Each panel answers one question. Where a source has nothing for a word, the panel is left out rather than filled with a guess.
Counts
How often the word was said at comparable events, meaning the same speaker in the same event series. "11 of 14" means it was on the board 14 times and said 11 times.
How to read it: Each square is one past event, oldest on the left. Blue means said, outlined means not said. Look for streaks and recent changes, not just the total. A speaker’s first brief carries a New To Kaltrend tag; with no past events to count, its words show Said Elsewhere instead.
Source: Official settlement results from the exchange.
Said Elsewhere
When a speaker has never had a word on their board before, there is nothing to count for them. So we look at what happened when other people had the same word. "152 of 420" means the word came up at 420 past events and got said at 152 of them.
How to read it: If the same person or company has had the word before, like Microsoft events for Satya Nadella, we show that instead because it is a closer match. It replaces Counts on words with no history.
Source: Official settlement results from the exchange.
Coverage
How much the word shows up in the speaker’s news right now. Heating Up, Steady or Cooling Off compares it with the speaker’s usual level. When there is no usual level yet, Big Topic, In The Mix or Barely Mentioned shows how much of their recent coverage mentions it, for example "In 32% of recent Melania coverage".
How to read it: Heating Up turns the panel amber and shows a flame in the word list. For events without a named speaker, the panel shows the word’s pace across all news instead.
Source: The speaker’s own coverage from thousands of national and regional news outlets.
Quotes
How many articles from the last 48 hours quote the speaker using the word, and how many mention the word at all. "Quoted in 6 articles" means six recent articles quote the speaker saying it.
How to read it: A hint at what is on the speaker’s mind this week. It matters most for new words and Cold Streak words, which have been said noticeably more often when the speaker was being quoted. On a Hot Streak it adds little, since the market usually knows by event time. The figures are on the Patterns page.
Source: The speaker’s own news coverage, checked for direct quotes.
Transcripts
Mentions across past transcripts or TV captions for the same speaker and format, shown when that record exists.
How to read it: A second look at the record, taken from what was actually said instead of from settlement results.
Source: Official transcripts and national TV captions.
Whales
Whale orders on the word: single orders of $500 or more in the last 48 hours, with the size and the side. When there are none, the panel shows the total traded and the share taken on Yes.
How to read it: Whale Watch on each brief lists the largest orders across the whole board. It shows where big money has moved. It is not a recommendation to follow it.
Source: The exchange’s trading record.
Context
Whether the word fits the event’s stated or reported agenda: On The Agenda, Related Topic or Off Agenda, with the reason.
How to read it: Open "Context, notes and rules" on any word to see why it was tagged that way and what the settlement rules say.
Source: Research on the event’s schedule, format and reported topics.
Patterns
A Pattern line under every word showing how often words with the same record were said, plus Hot Streak, Cold Streak and New Word flags.
How to read it: Hot Streak means said at each of the last 3 events; Cold Streak means said at none of them. The full figures are on the Patterns page, and the Results page scores the Pattern against the market price on every settled word in Pattern Vs. Market Price.
Source: Every settled word on record, matched to official results.
Market Price
The live Yes price for the word, shown at the top right of every word card and in the word list.
How to read it: A word priced at 97¢ or more is flagged Likely Already Said: usually the word has been said already, or the market treats it as certain. Those words move to the bottom of the board and show a Said mark in the word list.
Source: Official exchange records.
At This Price
How often past words with a similar price were said. We take every past word that was priced in the same 10¢ range just before its event, for example 60 to 69¢, and count how many were said. "65% were said" means about 65 out of every 100 of them were.
How to read it: Compare it with the price. If words priced around 65¢ were said about 65% of the time, the market has priced that range well in the past. Shown as a panel when there is room, otherwise as a line under the Pattern note. It describes past markets, not this event.
Source: Settled words with their pre-event prices since August 2026.
Labels On A Word
Colored labels sit beside a word when something about it is worth knowing at a glance. Tap any label on a brief to see what it means.
Said at each of its last 3 events in this series. Words with that record have been said far more often than average.
Not said at any of its last 3 events in this series. Words with that record have been said far less often than average.
First time this word has been on the board for this series, so there is no past record to go on.
The word is showing up in the speaker’s coverage at 1.5x or more of its usual level, or coverage of it is breaking right now.
Priced at 97¢ or more. That usually means the word has already been said, or the market treats it as certain. These words move to the bottom of the board and are marked Said in the word list.
The word fits the event’s stated or reported topic. Open “Context, notes and rules” for the reason.
Close to the event’s topic without being its main theme. It could come up in passing or in questions.
Not part of the event’s stated or reported topic. It would need to come up unprompted.
This market needs the word said a set number of times, not just once. Check the count in the rules.
What Stands Out
The top of each brief turns the numbers into a short list of plain facts, so you don’t have to hunt for them. Each one carries a colored tag, and the colors stay the same on every brief. Tap a finding to jump to that word.
- Heating UpTariffCoverage is running at 2.4x its usual pace.News on the word is running well above its usual pace.
- QuotedEnergyQuoted using the word in 4 articles in the last 48 hours.The speaker was quoted using the word in recent articles.
- Whale OrdersBidenA $1,850 order on Yes in the last 48 hours.Single orders of $500 or more on the word.
- Said Every TimeUkraineSaid at all 6 comparable events.Said at every comparable past event.
- Never SaidCryptoOn the board 5 times, never said.Listed before but never said.
- Said ElsewhereAISaid at 152 of 420 events on other boards.No record for this speaker, so the count comes from other speakers who had the word.
- TranscriptsInflationUsed in 9 of 12 past transcripts.The word shows up often in past transcripts or TV captions.
- First TimeArgentinaOn this board for the first time.On this speaker’s board for the first time.
Reading A Brief In A Minute
Start With What Stands Out
The top of every brief lists the most notable facts on the board, each with a colored tag such as Heating Up, Quoted, Whale Orders or Said Every Time. The same color means the same kind of finding on every brief.
Scan The Board
Each word card puts past events, news, quotes and trades side by side. Sort by Most Said to see the steadiest words first. Words the market already treats as said sit at the bottom. Tap the info button on any panel for an explanation.
Check The Rules
Open the details on any word you care about. Plurals, required counts and Q&A wording settle more markets than people expect.
Run Deep Research
Pro members can run Deep Research for a short read on what the event is and what changed in the last 48 hours.
Decide For Yourself
Kaltrend lays out the facts. The call, and the price you are willing to pay, are always yours.
Where The Data Comes From
What Kaltrend Does
- Counts what was said at comparable events
- Measures news coverage and its pace
- Flags settlement wording to watch
- Names every source it used
What Kaltrend Does Not Do
- Predict outcomes or publish probabilities
- Tell you to buy or sell
- Promise results
- Act on your behalf on any exchange
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Every brief is open to everyone, with full evidence on the first three words. Pro covers every word, plus What Stands Out for the whole board, Deep Research and full rules. 7 days free.