What Are Mention Markets?
A mention market asks one question: will a named speaker say a given word during a given event? Every word on the board is its own Yes or No contract. If the speaker says it, the contract pays $1. If not, it pays nothing. Kaltrend has the settled results of 773 mention events on record, covering 13,359 words.
How A Mention Market Works
- An event is listed. A rally, press briefing, interview, hearing, speech or earnings call, with a list of words.
- Each word trades on its own. The price, from 1 to 99 cents, is what traders collectively pay for Yes.
- The event happens. Words the speaker says under the rules settle Yes at $1. Everything else settles No.
How Words Are Counted
Rules differ from market to market. These are the rules that decide the most outcomes.
Plurals And Possessives
Many markets count “tariffs” and “tariff’s” for “tariff”. Some count only the exact word.
Slash Words
A word listed as “Crypto / Cryptocurrency” settles Yes if either form is said.
Counts
A word marked 3+ needs three separate mentions, not one.
Who Is Speaking
Usually only the named speaker counts. Questions from reporters and other guests typically do not.
Compound Words
Whether “ceasefire” counts for “fire” depends on the market. Check before you trade.
Translations
Some rules address interpreters and translated remarks. Most count only the speaker’s own words.
Who Has Mention Markets
Speakers with the most settled mention events in Kaltrend’s record.
How To Research A Mention Market
Count Past Events
How often the word was said at earlier events in the same series. 11 of the last 14 rallies says more than a hunch.
Read This Week’s News
A topic running at twice its usual coverage is more likely to come up than one that has gone quiet.
Check Recent Quotes
What the speaker has said in the last 48 hours, which can differ from what the press is covering.
Read The Rules
Plurals, counts and Q&A wording settle more markets than people expect.
Kaltrend does all four for every political mention event and puts them on one page, free to browse.
See Upcoming BriefsQuestions
What is a mention market?
A prediction market on whether a named speaker will say a specific word during a specific event, such as a rally, press briefing or earnings call. Each word is its own Yes or No contract that pays $1 if the word is said and nothing if it is not.
Where do mention markets trade?
Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange, lists most political mention markets. Kaltrend is independent research and is not affiliated with Kalshi or any exchange.
How do mention markets settle?
After the event, each word settles Yes if the named speaker said it under that market’s rules and No if they did not. The rules decide what counts, including plurals, compound words, required counts such as 3+ mentions and whether answers in a Q&A count.
Do plurals and possessives count in mention markets?
In many markets they do, but not all. Some rules count only the exact word, so read the rules for each word before trading. Kaltrend flags these rules on every word.
How do you research a mention market?
Check how often the word was said at past events in the same series, how much the topic is in the news this week, what the speaker has been quoted saying lately and how the rules count the word. Kaltrend puts all four on one page for every event.
Is there a free mention market research tool?
Yes. Every Kaltrend brief is free to browse, with full evidence on the first three words of each event. Pro is $15 a month and covers every word.
Independent research. Not betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or any exchange.