Results

How Recent Events Settled

Every political mention event from the last three weeks, word by word: what was said, what surprised the market and which streaks ended.

Settled in the last 3 weeks
40events

A typical event had 23 words on the board, and about 11 were said.

429 of 926 words said46%

Pattern Vs. Market Price

Did each word’s Pattern or its market price point the right way? Scored on the same 184 settled words, each with at least 3 past events and a price before the event.

Pattern77%
Right on 141 of 184. Calls Yes when the Pattern line shows the word said at half or more of its past events, otherwise No.
Market Price74%
Right on 136 of 184. Calls Yes when the word traded at 50¢ or more before the event, otherwise No.
When they agreed
155 words, right 80% of the time
When they disagreed
29 words: Pattern right 17, market right 12

On the 29 words where they disagreed, the Pattern was right 17 times (59%).

Streaks Broken

6

Said at every past event, then missed.

Nuclearmissed after 9 straight
Donald Trump, his rally in South Carolina

Said For The First Time

10

Missed at every past event, then said.

Israelafter 11 misses
Zohran Mamdani, Fox News Sunday

Every Event

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