Question 1

Does Kaltrend tell me what to bet?

Accepted Answer

No. Kaltrend shows counts and context: how often a word was said at comparable events, what is in the news, and how the rules read. There are no picks, probabilities or calls.

Question 2

Where do the counts come from?

Accepted Answer

From how past markets in the same event series actually settled. If a word was on the board at 14 earlier events and resolved Yes at 11, the brief shows 11 of 14 with a square for each event.

Question 3

Which events are covered?

Accepted Answer

Political mention markets: rallies, press briefings, Sunday shows, interviews, hearings and speeches. New events appear as soon as they are listed.

Question 4

What does Pro add?

Accepted Answer

Counts for every word instead of the first three, news coverage counts per word, Deep Research with today’s changes, and full rules text. Pro is $15 a month or $150 a year, with 7 days free.

Question 5

What do Hot Streak and Cold Streak mean?

Accepted Answer

Hot Streak marks a word said at each of its last 3 events in the series, Cold Streak one said at none of them. Each word also shows its base rate, how often words with the same record have resolved Yes, and the Base Rates page has the full figures.

Question 6

What are whale orders?

Accepted Answer

Single orders of $500 or more on a word in the last 48 hours, with the size and the side. Whale Watch on each brief lists the largest across the board.

Question 7

Are you affiliated with Kalshi?

Accepted Answer

No. Kaltrend is independent research. Briefs link out to the exchange so you can check prices yourself.

Sam Altman

Upcoming Briefs

Every Word, All Time

The rest is on Pro

Recent Results